Northern lights

Question

We are a couple in our 70's. We have been to AK three times, 4 weeks at each time. They were all in early Fall.

Northern lights is on my bucket list. How much luck do you think I will have of seeing them if I try to book everything myself as opposed to going with a tour? Most tours are all booked by now. We would like to go in March during the end of the month when it is a new moon.

Answer

Seeing the Northern Lights in Alaska is a fantastic goal, and March—especially around a new moon—is a very good time for it. Since you’re aiming for the end of March, you’ll benefit from darker skies, longer nights, and generally clearer weather than mid-winter, which improves visibility.

Self-booking vs. tours:

If you book everything yourself, your success depends on flexibility, location, and weather conditions. You will need to monitor aurora forecasts, cloud cover, and solar activity. Websites like the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks provide aurora forecasts.
Going with a tour often increases your odds because the guides are experienced in reading weather and aurora forecasts and may drive to multiple locations for optimal viewing. However, if tours are fully booked, self-booking is still a viable option.
Self-booking allows you to select accommodations in areas known for clearer skies and minimal light pollution, such as Fairbanks, which is north of Anchorage and widely regarded as one of the best locations in Alaska for aurora viewing.

Tips to maximize your chances:

Base yourself in Fairbanks if possible, as it has a high likelihood of clear skies and northern latitude for better aurora visibility.
Check long-term aurora forecasts and plan for at least 3–4 nights to increase your odds. The aurora is unpredictable, so more nights = more opportunities.
Choose accommodations outside city lights or consider a rental cabin or lodge with easy access to open skies. Even small towns around Fairbanks can be excellent.
Dress warmly for long outdoor viewing sessions; Alaska nights in March can still be very cold, often below 20°F (-6°C).
Consider having a rental car for flexibility, so you can drive to optimal viewing spots depending on cloud cover each night.
Bring a good camera and tripod if you want photos, as the aurora often appears faint to the naked eye but can be spectacular in long-exposure photography.

Overall luck expectation:

If you go at the end of March during a new moon and are based in Fairbanks or another northern, dark-sky location, your chances are fairly high—perhaps 60–80% over multiple nights, depending on solar activity and weather.
Even if you do everything independently, with planning, flexibility, and patience, seeing the aurora is quite possible. Tours mainly help by taking you to the best spots each night and providing local expertise, but self-booking can work just as well with preparation.

In conclusion, March at the end of the month is a good choice, and if you monitor aurora forecasts and pick a dark-sky location like Fairbanks, you have a very realistic chance of seeing the Northern Lights even without a guided tour. Booking early accommodations is critical, as March is popular for aurora watchers.

Northern lights

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