End of September vs. October?

Question

Planning a trip for the fall. I've been there 3 times previously but not in the fall. I had randomly picked the 3rd weekend in October to start planning and hotel prices seemed high-but so do hotel prices everywhere these days. Then today, I was playing around and found that the last weekend in September is much more reasonable and each subsequent weekend the prices climb.

So long story short-is it because of hurricane risk/weather? I'm ok with hot and humid (I've been there in June and July) but would love to have dry weather (and no hurricanes). I know that can't be predicted this far out and Katrina and Ida were the end of August, but I'm also ok with paying a little bit more if mid-October is more sensible.

Answer

It's great that you're planning a trip to New Orleans in the fall! You're right to notice differences in hotel prices between late September and mid-October. The pricing fluctuation is likely influenced by several factors, including weather, hurricane risk, and the city's event calendar. Let’s break it down:

Hurricane Season and Weather Considerations

New Orleans is still in the midst of hurricane season during both September and October. Hurricane season typically runs from June through November, with the peak being in August and September. While the risk of hurricanes decreases slightly as you move into October, the weather in late September can still be quite humid, hot, and rainy. That said, it’s hard to predict with certainty whether a hurricane will hit, and some years may have minimal activity after September.

Since you’ve visited in June and July, you’re already familiar with the heat and humidity that New Orleans can experience. However, October is typically more comfortable weather-wise, with cooler temperatures, lower humidity, and less frequent rainfall. In fact, mid-October is often considered one of the best times to visit, with mild temperatures and drier weather. If you’re okay with the possibility of a little rain and humidity at the end of September, it might not be a deal-breaker for you, but October will likely provide a more pleasant experience overall.

Hotel Prices and Events

Regarding hotel prices, they tend to fluctuate based on demand and the timing of major events. September and October in New Orleans are considered "shoulder season"—meaning they fall outside the peak tourist seasons, which are Mardi Gras (winter) and the summer months. However, there are still events that could influence hotel pricing during this period:

Late September: The last weekend in September typically doesn’t coincide with many major events, which could explain why you’re seeing lower hotel prices. It’s after the summer rush but before the busier event season in October. However, hurricane risk is still a factor in September, and there’s always a slight chance of weather interruptions.
Mid-October: By the middle of October, the weather is usually more pleasant, but New Orleans starts to see more visitors due to events like the New Orleans Film Festival, Voodoo Music + Arts Experience (if it’s held in October that year), and Halloween festivities. These events draw more tourists, leading to higher hotel prices. It's a popular time for fall visitors who prefer more mild weather, which can drive up demand and raise rates.

Pros of September vs. October

End of September: Hotel prices are typically lower, and crowds are thinner. The weather may still be hot and humid, with a greater likelihood of rain or storms. If you’re flexible with weather and prefer fewer crowds, the end of September might be a good option.
Mid-October: The weather will likely be more comfortable—cooler and less humid. However, you may encounter higher hotel prices due to the start of the fall events season. It’s also a more popular time for tourists, so the city will be livelier, and some areas may be more crowded. If you're okay with paying a bit more for a more enjoyable experience weather-wise and don't mind the increased prices, mid-October is an excellent time to visit.

Final Thoughts

If you prioritize having a more comfortable, dry experience, mid-October would be your best bet, as the weather is typically cooler and more pleasant. However, if you’re okay with slightly higher temperatures, some humidity, and the possibility of rain in exchange for lower hotel prices and fewer crowds, the last weekend of September could be a good option.

Either way, New Orleans in the fall offers a fantastic experience. The city’s charm, vibrant food scene, live music, and historic architecture are enjoyable year-round, so you’ll have a memorable time no matter when you go!