Any chance of an October Fire Fall

Question

With the recent heavy rainfall, is there any water flow of horse tail fall ? Is it possible that we will have an October Firefall for the next two weeks?

Answer

The “Firefall” phenomenon at Horsetail Fall in Yosemite is a rare and visually stunning event that usually occurs in mid- to late February when the setting sun hits the waterfall at the right angle, creating the illusion of flowing lava or fire. Unfortunately, there is no chance of a true Firefall in October. The conditions for the Firefall—adequate water flow in Horsetail Fall and the correct solar angle—only align in February.

Regarding Horsetail Fall in October:

Water Flow: October is typically very dry in Yosemite. Horsetail Fall, being a seasonal waterfall fed mostly by snowmelt, often has little to no water during this month. Even with recent heavy rainfall, it’s unlikely that the waterfall will have sufficient flow to create any notable spectacle.
Firefall Possibility: As mentioned, the Firefall is strictly a winter/early spring phenomenon. The sun’s position in October is too low in the sky and not aligned with the cliff for the “lava effect” to occur.
Viewing Alternative: If you are hoping to see Horsetail Fall in action, the best months are late February through early March. In October, your focus might be better directed to other waterfalls, scenic vistas, or autumn foliage in Yosemite Valley.

Summary:

No Firefall in October—this is strictly a February event.
Horsetail Fall may be dry or have minimal flow in October, even with recent rainfall.
Consider visiting other waterfalls such as Yosemite Falls or Bridalveil Fall, which can have more water in early autumn, or enjoy the fall colors around the valley.

Overall, while October is a beautiful time to visit Yosemite with fewer crowds and pleasant weather, the Firefall will not be visible, and water flow at Horsetail Fall will likely be minimal.