Possible volcanic eruption

Question

I’m planning a trip to Kenai Pennisula in June. In light of the predictions of Mount Spurr erupting soon, would you recommend cancelling this trip?

Answer

That’s a very good and reasonable question, given the media coverage and your trip timing. Here’s a detailed breakdown to help you decide whether or not to cancel or adjust your Kenai Peninsula trip in June, considering the current situation with Mount Spurr.

Current Volcano Status

Mount Spurr (on the west side of Cook Inlet, ~75-80 miles from Anchorage) has been showing signs of unrest. A significant increase in earthquake activity and ground deformation suggests that magma may be intruding beneath the volcano.

However, the most recent update from late May 2025 indicates that the magma intrusion has stalled, and while the volcano is still restless, the likelihood of an eruption is *gradually declining*.

As of now, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) has the alert at Advisory and the Aviation Color Code at Yellow, meaning there is low-level unrest but no immediate eruption.

Importantly, if an eruption were to happen, AVO expects there would likely be warning signs in advance (increased seismicity, gas emissions, surface heating).

Risks Specific to the Kenai Peninsula

One of the main hazards from a Spurr eruption would be ashfall. During past eruptions (1953, 1992), ash clouds traveled far, and some ash landed on south-central Alaska.

According to the state’s volcano-preparedness FAQ, communities on or near the Kenai Peninsula (Tyonek, Beluga) are among the closest to Spurr. Depending on wind direction, ashfall of up to around ¼ inch is possible — though that was for historical, more intense eruptions.

Ashfall could affect visibility, air quality, and travel (especially flights), and you would likely need to take precautions like wearing masks, protecting vehicles, and avoiding being outdoors during heavy ash events.

On the other hand, the state government is actively preparing: Alaska has set up resources (through ready.alaska.gov) for public alerts, ashfall forecasts, and guidance on protective measures.

Pros and Cons of Canceling Your Trip

Pros of canceling or postponing: Eliminates the risk of experiencing ashfall, flight disruptions, or health annoyances (respiratory irritation, car damage). Gives you peace of mind if you’re not comfortable with even a low-to-moderate risk.
Cons of canceling: You might miss out on your planned trip for no reason — the eruption may never happen, or the activity could remain low. Refunds, rescheduling, or the cost of rearranging travel might outweigh the risk. Also, once the risk decreases (as it reportedly has), you may be able to rebook or proceed safely.

Alternative Options to Consider Instead of Canceling

Proceed with careful planning: Keep your trip but build in flexibility — monitor AVO updates closely in the weeks leading up to your travel. Sign up for volcano alerts from AVO or related state services.
Mitigation kit: Bring or plan to acquire N95 (or higher) masks, eye protection, plastic sheeting or tarps to cover your car or lodging, and a plan for cleaning ash from surfaces. These are common recommendations in volcanic-ash preparedness guides.
Adjust itinerary: If you’re flexible, choose areas of the Kenai Peninsula that are less likely to be affected by ash based on prevailing winds (monitor ashfall forecasts). Also, avoid being outdoors during any ashfall warnings.
Stay connected: While there’s no guarantee, if warning signs escalate (e.g., AVO raises the alert level), authorities would likely issue advisories. Have a plan to leave early or shelter in place, depending on how the situation evolves.

My Recommendation

At this time, I would not necessarily recommend canceling your trip outright, especially if it’s already planned and you're set on going to the Kenai Peninsula. The risk has decreased compared to earlier months, and AVO continues to monitor closely. With a cautious, prepared mindset, you can likely manage the risk.

However, you should treat this as a *conditional go*. Stay informed, prepare for ash, and be ready to adjust or pivot depending on how the volcano’s behavior evolves in the coming weeks. If having an “uninterrupted, relaxing trip with zero risk” is your top priority, postponing to a later date (once more certainty exists) could be a reasonable choice.

Happy to help you track monitoring resources, figure out how to prepare, or decide on the best mitigation plan — just say the word.